Until September, 2015, poliomyelitis was a major health issue in Nigeria, especially in the Northern states of the country. Nigeria was removed from the list of polio endemic Nations in September, 2015 by World Health Organization (WHO). Polio is known to possess about 72% asymptomatic carriers which could account for its re-emergence. Hence, one pertinent issue is whether polio could re-emerge in Nigeria after a period when symptomatic cases were no longer observed. In this study, we have employed a matrix exponential method to derive a model for the containment probability in a period of no symptomatic cases. Using data from Global Polio Eradication Initiative, the probability that polio i
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